Expert: Tariffs could throw gasoline prices into flux
Gas prices in Butler County, and Pennsylvania as a whole, have risen over the past two weeks, but drivers may get a break at the pump thanks to — ironically, enough — tariffs.
According to statistics from the American Automobile Association, the average price of unleaded gasoline in Butler County has risen by more than 34 cents over a two-week period — from $3.315 on March 24 to $3.669 on April 7.
Jim Garrity, director of public affairs for AAA Western Pennsylvania, says not to expect prices to trend in the opposite direction anytime soon, due to multiple factors that come into play at this time of year. These include annual refinery maintenance, as well as a change in the type of gasoline refineries are producing.
“It's spring break, there are road trips and there’s more demand for gas,” Garrity said. “Also, the gasoline that refineries produce changes from winter blend to summer blend, and that's a more expensive gasoline to produce.”
“Summer gasoline has to be less volatile because the air temperature is warmer. It has to be less evaporative,” said Patrick De Haan, price analyst for GasBuddy. “Summer gasoline is less volatile. It contains more alkylate. Alkylate is a very expensive blending component because it's less evaporative. Winter gasoline is cheaper and contains more butane.”
Across Western Pennsylvania, the average price of unleaded gasoline has risen by nearly 26 cents, from $3.374 on March 24 to $3.631 on April 7. Statewide, the average has risen by 15 cents over that same time frame, from $3.22 to $3.37.
Prices are still slightly lower than they were at this point last year, when the average price of unleaded gasoline in Western Pennsylvania was $3.839 per gallon. The national average is also 34 cents lower than it was at this point last year.
“Prices are lower, and a big part of that is that oil has stabilized and demand for oil is tepid,” Garrity said. “Demand for gasoline is kind of unseasonably low.”
Stiff international tariffs recently announced by the Trump administration could throw a monkey wrench into price projections for the summer — but not in the way you might expect. Upon news of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs plan, crude oil futures fell to as low as $58.04 a barrel on Tuesday.
Although the Trump administration put a 90-day pause on implementing most of the announced tariffs, De Haan says this plunge could actually lead to lower prices at the pump for the consumer this summer, if they were ultimately implemented.
“It's likely that the big recent drop in the price of oil is going to start pushing prices down,” De Haan said. “Any remaining (price) increase because of the changeover to summer gas is going to be more than offset by the big drop in the price of oil.”
De Haan also predicts that, if tariffs cause an economic slowdown, Americans may cut back on travel this summer.
“If you look at stocks like Delta Air Lines, United Airlines, American Airlines … those stocks have been cut nearly in half, because of the risks from this tariff war and the risk that people will not travel as much,” De Haan said. “When we enter a potential recession, Americans generally save more and spend less. They cancel their road trips. They cancel their vacations.”
Garrity says that AAA is waiting to see how tariffs will affect the global energy and travel markets. However, he said he believes that Americans will make time for travel even in the event of an economic slowdown, citing 2022 as an example. That year, gas prices hit record highs — as high as $5.029 in Western Pennsylvania — amid the start of the war in Ukraine.
“We found, in this survey from AAA, that folks were prioritizing leisure travel and making other adjustments to their budget,” Garrity said. “What folks did the last time prices hit record highs was, they made adjustments to their day-to-day … and in doing so, that's how they were able to offset any increases that they were spending at the pump.”
